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Alea Fairchild – Strategic Views

Alea Fairchild – Strategic Views

Tag Archives: strategy

Backcasting for playbook creation

16 Sunday Mar 2025

Posted by afairchild in Uncategorized

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books, life, personal-development, strategy, writing

Transforming how you create your forward momentum in turbulent times

March 2020 – the start of the lockdowns in the pandemic.    Pivoting to online and WFH, wearing masks, gloves and lots of hand gel.  Using our elbows for door, washing groceries, changing processes and relationships….

Could we then have forecasted then what has happened in the last five years? 

It is March 2025.   Step back and see how you and your firm have adapted in the last five years.   Congratulate yourselves on how you modified and adapted how you now engage and interact.

But wait  — it will be March 2030.  Economic uncertainty, climate instability and energy concerns will have impacted the last five years of our lives.   How will you and your firm adapt how you engaged and interacted?     If you could backcast what you wanted to achieve in 2030 when you were in 2025, how would have that looked like?

For myself on a personal note, in March 2020 I was caring for my chronically ill husband who ended up in the hospital for five months during this period (and yes, he got COVID while in the hospital, which made communication even that more challenging).   I was already working remotely as a consultant with a team in Asia and a group in the US as an expert, plus teaching graduate business students (and pivoted to online teaching).  I was alone except for health care professionals once my husband returned home.  I had to organize renting a hospital bed for our living room in a pandemic.   Social tools allowed me 24/7 reach to friends around the world for support. I had work colleagues trying to help from their homebases.   I had food delivery and very early morning visits to the store to minimize contact for his sake.  I worked closely with my local pharmacy to keep both him and I in the best possible place in terms of our health.

But I knew that I had to work through this and keep going.  So I pivoted on a number of items, but kept the importance of certain elements of my life going.   So I weightlifted in my living room and outside my front door.  I fenced online with colleagues using Zoom.  I kept teaching online to keep an income flow when consulting became unstable.   I moderated events online, using my combined tech and comms skills.   I published, I presented and I made sure I was still active and relevant.  This included participating in a remote TEDx.

One skill I have practiced extensively through this period is backcasting.  It is similar but different to forecasting.   Forecasting is predictions based on expectations and likelihood.    Backcasting picks outcomes for the future and creates paths to try to achieve them, working around predicted and unexpected  situations to create alternative paths.

In 1988, John Robinson wrote an article on backcasting where he said: “..backcasting techniques that reveal the possibility, and test the feasibility and impacts, of alternative futures. The focus thus shifts from prediction and likelihood to feasibility and choice.”

Robinson made a relevant point specific to how we have dealt with the last five years.  He wrote “…the search for the most likely future may actually be dangerous in that it permits the existence of choice to be obscured by the apparent existence of necessity. In other words, the most likely future may well not be the most desirable one, given the range of possible futures. What are needed therefore are not techniques which increasingly converge on the most likely future, but techniques which reveal and test the feasibility and impacts of alternative futures, in order that meaningful choices can be made among them.”

We have had to make choices, based on alternatives, but still with particular goals and outcomes in mind.   Though my Institute, I help firms and individuals lean into backcasting to create playbooks.   I offer services and workshops to help others transform their playbook development with backcasting techniques.

In writing this post, I also went back to my 2020 predictions on AI and automation which prove the old adage that we expect things to happen quicker in five years than they actually do.    But that’s a story for another post.  😉

Organizational Resilience:   Compliance risk strategy for 2023

05 Thursday Jan 2023

Posted by afairchild in Uncategorized

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2023, compliance, PCI DSS, security, strategy, TPTM, trust

Photo by Anca Dorneanu on Pexels.com

One of the two key areas of research focus for me this year is organizational resilience.  In 2023, a number of regulations have been updated, creating new requirements for businesses to follow, new areas of risk, and more money and time spent adjusting to these changes.

Compliance strategies help cement trust in professional partnerships and vendor relationships.  If your firm is trying to qualify for cyber insurance, or simply looking to obey the law and avoid fines, your business is up against increasingly tough compliance measures. It is no longer sufficient to be compliant only once per year, scramble in the two weeks before the audit, and then forget about it for the rest of the year.

What compliance tech trends should IT management adopt as they build and refine their technology roadmaps?  

Let’s start with some of the regulatory drivers for these trends.

Regulatory Issues to watch

European Union Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA)

The EU is applying regulatory pressure in the financial sector with its Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA).  DORA is a “game changer” that will push Financial Services (FS) firms to fully understand how their ICT, operational resilience, cyber and TPRM practices affect the resilience of their most critical functions as well as develop entirely new operational resilience capabilities.

One key element here is that DORA introduces a Critical Third Party (CTP) oversight framework, expanding the scope of the FS regulatory perimeter and granting the European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs) substantial new powers to supervise CTPs and address resilience risks they might pose to the FS sector.


German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act (SCDDA)

On January 1, 2023, the German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act took effect. It requires all companies with head office, principal place of business, or administrative headquarter in Germany – with more than 3,000 employees in Germany – to comply with core human rights and certain environmental provisions in their supply chains. SCDDA is far-reaching and impacts multiple facets of the supply chain, from human rights to sustainability, and legal accountability throughout the third-party ecosystem. It will addressing foundational supply chain issues like anti-bribery and corruption diligence.

From 2024, the number of employees will be lowered from 3,000 to 1,000. And Switzerland, The Netherlands, and the European Union also have drafts of this type of regulation in the books.

PCI DSS 4.0

Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard (PCI DSS) is the core component of any credit card company’s security protocol.  In an increasingly cashless world, card fraud is a growing concern. Any company that accepts, transmits or stores a cardholder’s private information must be compliant.  PCI compliance standards help avoid fraudulent activity and mitigate data breaches by keeping the cardholder’s sensitive financial information secure.

PCI compliance standards require merchants to consistently adhere to the PCI Standards Council’s guidelines which include 78 base requirements, more than 400 test procedures and 12 key requirements.

When looking at the changes in how PCI has evolved over the years up to PCI 4.0, there is a departure from specific technical requirements and toward the general concept of overall security.  PCI 4.0 requirements were released in March 2022 and will become mandatory in March 2024 for all organizations that process or store cardholder data.

The costs of maintaining compliance controls and security measures are only part of what businesses should budget for PCI certification. Businesses should also account for audit costs, yearly fees, remediation expenses, and employee training costs in their budgets alongside technical upgrades to meet compliance standards.

Tech Trend changes

Zero Trust presents a shift from a location-centric model to a more data-centric approach for fine-grained security controls between users, systems, data and assets. Zero Trust as a model assumes all requests are from an open network and verifies each request this way. PCI 4.0 does not mention zero trust architecture specifically, but it is evident that the Security Standards Council is going that way as a future consideration.

Passwordless authentication gained a lot of attention and traction this year. Major companies, such as Google, Apple, and Microsoft, are introducing passwordless authentication based on passkeys. This is a clear sign that the game is about to change.  As the PCI DSS focuses on avoiding fraudulent activity, so does newer authentication protocol approaches to verify and confirm identity.

Third-party risk management is quickly evolving into third-party trust management (TPTM), with the SCDDA creating a clear line in the sand for global organizations. TPTM is a critical consideration when standing up an enterprise trust strategy. Enterprise trust is a driver of business development that depends on cross-domain collaboration.  It goes beyond cybersecurity and focuses on building trusted and lasting third-party relationships across the core critical risk domains: security, privacy, ethics & compliance, and ESG.

Final thought – Cyber Insurance in 2023

If some of these compliance drivers lead to a desire for financial protection,  cyber insurance is one mitigation element for strategy to address C-level concerns.   But wait – this is not as easy as it used to be.

Five years ago, a firm could fill out a one-page cyber insurance application and answer a handful of questions. Fast forward to ransomware and other cyber threats and now getting insurance with favourable terms, conditions, pricing coverage and low retention is tough.

Insurance companies prefer enterprises that are instituting robust security controls and incident response plans — especially those prepared to deep dive into their cybersecurity architectures and planned roadmaps. In terms of compliance strategy development,  there needs to be a risk-based led approach to cybersecurity to allow an insurer to offer a favourable insurance option.

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